I really should be thanking Joe Biden’s inner circle. Overnight, and without effort, I was elevated several social classes, now freshly scrubbed and clothed in the comforts of the “elite”. The price of entry into this club? Simply being worried about our prospects of winning—by the President’s own admission—an existential election.
It’s true, being out of touch with “real democrats” comes with myriad other privileges. I no longer have to read polls. The ones I mistakenly glance at are to be read upside down. I can also throw away my television, because what I see and hear is, unquestionably, the result of some persistent electrical fault or satellite failure. I’m now able to save money by deleting any and all news media subscriptions, owing to the fact that they are all involved in a gross conspiracy to deceive me.
I see now my many mistakes, and why they had to be corrected through a rigorous social media reeducation, taught by the Democratic party’s most vicious taskmasters: “real voters”. As a form of penance, allow me to run through my misapprehensions and show off what I learned.
What I believed: New information can impact how you view a person or situation.
What I learned: Primaries are eternally binding. There can be no new information.
This is important, because it is applicable outside politics. If you like someone, say, a film star or musician, and they are later revealed to be a racist or child molester, you still have to like and support them. In President Biden’s case, he won 87% of the primary vote. The fact that long-held electoral norms meant he was only challenged by a faceless congressman and a witch doctor is irrelevant. That elderly human beings decline in physical and cognitive health, often at a rapid pace, is unimportant. Should that decline continue and be continually revealed over the next few months, it really doesn’t matter. He won the primary. The matter is closed.
What I believed: Poll numbers can be impacted, positively or negatively, by events that transpire during a campaign.
What I learned: The poll numbers of all candidates are fixed and final.
When the White House released a one-pager detailing how President Biden ran marginally better against Trump than other stars of the Democratic party, I openly guffawed. That was foolish, and I’m sorry. I had always thought poll numbers could move based on catalysts; things like speeches, campaign events, and candidate likeability. This led to me believe that Biden’s team had erred in telling us that the President, after 3.5 years in office, and with a nationwide campaign apparatus and 100% name recognition, was only marginally better than candidates who had not run any campaign whatsoever. I was wrong. Obviously, President Biden has reached his nadir four months out from the election, and there will be no more lapses on national television. Meanwhile, every other candidate sits at the zenith of their electability, with almost zero hope that limitless spending and national media coverage will do anything other than make more people dislike them.
What I believed: Donald Trump is the weakest Presidential candidate ever, and a well-run campaign with a vigorous candidate would destroy him and his enablers.
What I learned: Only Joe Biden has defeated Donald Trump, therefore only Joe Biden can defeat Donald Trump.
In every other walk of life, a single event in the past does not predict its likelihood in the future. For example, a man from my town once won the lottery. He is the only person in the town who has won the lottery. That does not mean he is the only one who can win the lottery, and it does not mean he is any likelier to win the lottery again. Or so I thought. Recently, I have learned that Joe Biden is different, unbound to and untethered from conventional wisdom. The fact that Joe Biden won four key states in 2020 by less than 1.2% is immaterial. The fact that he is behind in almost every swing state today is background noise. Only he has defeated Trump, so only he—weakened as he may be—can do so again.
What I believed: Watching people around them decline due to age has given most people the insight required to know when someone has declined due to age.
What I learned: It was just a bad night. Otherwise, President Biden is hale and hearty.
Here at least, I can claim some credit back. I know, and have always known, that Donald Trump is the most flagrant liar in American history. I have said so many times. In Sisyphean fashion, I have hoped he would drop out of the race. What I didn’t know was that having any reaction to the shocking image of my preferred candidate stupefied and incomprehensible in front of the nation makes me, in essence, a MAGA operative. In noticing a tangible, multifaceted decline in President Biden, I am weakening him. I see, on reflection, that it was just a bad night. How do I know this? Because the President has immediately corrected me by zigzagging the nation, delivering strong showings in town halls and long-form interviews, off teleprompter and on, energizing his base and assuaging the fears of swing voters. I have not seen this firsthand, but his campaign tells me it’s happening. We have already established that my eyes and ears are useless anyway. I have learned to trust.
What I believed: The mainstream media’s job is to report what is happening.
What I learned: The mainstream media’s job is to deny what is happening.
There was a time when seeing Fox News or Newsmax flash across my timeline filled me with rage. They were news by name, but not by nature. I see now they were doing it right all along. The function of the news is to deliver the opinions the audience wants to see. If they are, in fact, opinion news, they should only operate if they share our exact opinion. What elected officials and political staffers say privately should stay private, and our ire should only point at those who make those private views public. Contrary to popular belief, you should shoot the messenger, in the face if at all possible. Facts can be damaging to the collective fiction we share. MAGA may have beat us to that conclusion, but we’re catching up.
What I believed: Winning an American election requires a coalition that spans demographics and viewpoints.
What I learned: Winning an American election requires a narrow group of voters who chastise, bully, and alienate their peers for ideological impurity.
This was a big one for me. I thought that every election in history was won by expanding the voter tent, reaching across ideological lines to hit a number that was larger than the opponent’s. This election is different. This time, the base is all that’s required. Anything more is superfluous and undesirable. Proof? Just look at the numbers. A 37% approval rating and 75% of voters saying Democrats would have a better chance of winning if Joe Biden stepped aside pale in comparison to the echo chamber of mutual twitter follows. Battleground polls are not real polls. Swing voters are not real people. Is calling someone abusive names online bad if they don’t really exist?
This week has been enlightening for me. I learned a lot. I unlearned even more, most notably common sense and the ability to read data. And now, I can breathe more easily. Thankfully, my fears were unfounded. What I perceived as gaslighting was actually illuminating. What I feared was terminal was little more than a momentary blip. So, again, and sincerely, thank you to the stalwarts, shame on you to my fellow bedwetters and party traitors. Now let’s go win this thing.
You’re welcome Stef! That really was a great read.
Beautifully written and powerfully argued.